It Is Down To This

Chaos reigns in the Premier League races for Europe entering the final matches of the season this coming Sunday. Currently the top seven clubs have qualified to play somewhere in Europe. Other than Liverpool and now Arsenal, however, the other five clubs do not have clarity as to which of the three continental tournaments they will be competing in. In addition to pride and recruiting value, there is enormous financial gain for clubs playing in the premier Champions League competition. Three of the five remaining contenders will fill out the five Champions League spots allotted to the league. The other two clubs are guaranteed a yet to be determined place in the less prestigious and certainly less lucrative Europa League or Conference League competitions.

Currently only three points separate third place Manchester City from seventh place Nottingham Forest. Beyond the top seven clubs in the table, the bottom half of the table will also contribute two unlikely European participants next season for a total of nine Premier League clubs certain to be playing in Europe next year. Either Manchester United or Tottenham Hotspur will play in the Champions League as the winner of today’s Europa League final despite those two finalists being the worst Premier League teams not to be relegated this season and each establishing new club records for Premier League losses.

And then there is Crystal Palace. The Eagles won the first major title in their club’s history by defeating Manchester City 1-0 last week for the FA Cup. That win not only comes with silverware but earns Crystal Palace a place in the Europa League next season. That is terrific news for the Eagles but not so much for their hated rival Brighton, currently eighth in the Premier League table and seemingly on track for Europe if Manchester City had taken care of business. Manchester City will qualify for either Champions League or Europa League by virtue of its table position. Thus, a Europa League invitation awarded to the Citizens as FA Cup winners would have defaulted to the next eligible club in the Premier League table, expanding the number of seats for the league at the European table.

With Crystal Palace, a bottom half side, now clinging tightly to the invitation, it is now most likely, though not certain, that only seven clubs (five to Champions League, one to Europa League, one to Conference League) will go to Europe based on their league standing, joining the Europa League winner and Crystal Palace for a total of nine Premier League teams headed to Europe. There is still hope, however, for the eighth-place Premier League club, currently Brighton with Brentford still in the picture, to qualify and send 10 clubs, or half of the Premier League, to Europe. Chelsea is the key to those hopes which require the Blues to win the current year’s Conference League final next week against Real Bettis AND also, under the clearest scenario, finish seventh in the table (A tenth Europe spot would also free up if Conference League winning Chelsea were sixth and EFL Cup winning Newcastle finishes seventh, but don’t ask…). In the simplest case, if Chelsea earns a Europa League spot for winning the current Conference League title and also earns the Premier League’s Conference League berth for next year, based on present league standing, that latter ticket would be passed on to the eighth-place finisher. Chelsea, of course, is still focused on earning a Champions League berth and that means winning away at seventh place Nottingham Forest on Sunday. The Blues got a goal from their surprising 2025 scoring leader, fullback Marc Cucurella to capture a 1-0 win over Manchester United last Friday and Nottingham Forest then edged West Ham 2-1 on Sunday to set up a massive final Sunday at the City Ground.

Aston Villa, currently level on points with Newcastle and Chelsea, rolled to a 2-0 win last Sunday over a Tottenham Hotspur side which long ago gave up caring about its Premier League schedule. Incredibly, Tottenham Hotspur has lost 21 matches in the Premier League this season and yet Manager Ange Postecoglou, currently embroiled in nasty relations with both supporters and media, could perpetrate a travesty this week by delivering a long-sought trophy for the north London club which sits 17th in the Premier League table.

Villa, meanwhile, now faces the other Europa League finalist in Manchester United, already an 18-time loser in the league, on Sunday. Newcastle, a loser last Sunday, is level on points with Chelsea and Aston Villa, though holding a goal differential advantage on both.

Arsenal became the second club after Liverpool to nail down a Champions League invite when Declan Rice’s goal proved the difference in a 1-0 win over Newcastle at the Emirates. Arsenal will be on the beach at Southampton this weekend while Newcastle returns home to face Everton as the Magpies make a final push for Champions League. Manchester City, now third in the table after Tuesday’s 3-1 win over Bournemouth, could be tested in its season finale at Craven Cottage versus Fulham. The Cottagers established a new club record Premier League point total by inflicting a damaging loss on Brentford last weekend. Brentford’s only hope to recapture eighth place, which may or may not mean anything, is to win at Wolves while Brighton is upset by unmotivated Tottenham Hotspur. If Chelsea has a good day Sunday, all is lost for either Brighton or Brentford.